K33: Bitcoin enters the 'late bear market zone', market signals similar to the bottom of 2022

According to The Block, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current structure of the Bitcoin market, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the later stages of the bear market in 2022, indicating a possible long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound. Vetle Lunde, the head of K33 research, stated that its proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (near the bottom of the bear market). However, historical experience has shown that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90 day return rate of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 28% since January, with funding rates being negative for 11 consecutive days, open contracts falling below 260000 BTC, and long positions being closed. Spot trading volume decreased by 59% on a weekly basis, and open futures contracts fell to a four month low. In terms of institutions, CME traders are relatively inactive. Bitcoin ETP holdings have decreased by 103113 BTC since their peak in October last year, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are mainly reducing exposure rather than completely exiting. The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historic low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90 day return on buying during periods of extreme fear is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during periods of extreme greed, indicating that fear cannot reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the $60000 to $75000 range for a long time, and the current entry point is attractive, but patience is needed.