陈剑Jason|Feb 18, 2026 13:08
Damn, prediction markets can be played like this? Bitwise and GraniteShares, these two ETF issuers, just filed applications for prediction market ETFs. You’re probably doing a double take right now—prediction market ETFs? What does that even mean?
Each of these issuers submitted six ETFs in one go, and each ETF corresponds to the results of the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election. For example, if you think the Republican Party will win the Senate in 2026, you can buy the '2026 Republican Wins Senate ETF'—yes, that’s literally the name . If you bet correctly, you’ll get the corresponding ETF returns; if you’re wrong, the entire investment in that ETF goes to zero.
The way these prediction market ETFs work has a kind of brutal aesthetic... At this rate, every single bet could result in a new ETF being registered, and eventually, we’ll see thousands upon thousands of ETFs flooding the market.
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