Changes in Bitcoin on chain data in the seventh week of 2026- Macro data improves, with a significant decrease in liquidity during the Spring Festival. Recently, two important macroeconomic data have been released consecutively this week, both of which are good. One is the non farm data, where the unemployment rate and non farm employment are both increasing, indicating that the resilience of the US economy is still good. The US is one step further away from an economic recession, but this also means that the Federal Reserve will pay more attention to inflation data and lower expectations of possible interest rate cuts. And the CPI data released immediately after was significantly better than expected. Before the inflation data was released, the market was simply pessimistic. Many institutions, including Goldman Sachs, expected inflation to exceed their previous values and expectations. However, the inflation data was unexpectedly lowered, which made investors who were seeking safe haven the day before depressed. However, even so, investors still have very pessimistic expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March. Currently, the CME and forecast markets have given less than 15% expectations for a March rate cut, which has a negative impact on market sentiment and liquidity. However, it is well known that Powell will step down from his position as Federal Reserve Chairman in May, and there is a high possibility that Walsh will call for the Federal Reserve to loosen its policies. Therefore, the focus of interest rate cuts should still be after June. Long term holders of BTC and ETH with NUPL values From a data perspective, as mentioned last week, Bitcoin has entered a bull bear cycle, while Ethereum has not only entered a bear market cycle, but also almost entered a deep bear state one day. After a week, BTC and ETH have not shown any improvement. Although macro data has temporarily stabilized investors' confidence in the US economy, it is still difficult to have additional liquidity without interest rate cuts. Therefore, from the data, BTC is in a transitional stage from bull market to bear market. As long as there is a clear bearish trend, BTC may have to test $60000 again. And ETH's data indicates that it is still in a bear market state, but it has not reached a deep bear that can buy at the bottom. Of course, I don't know if there is still a chance to enter the red represented by deep bears, but currently, ETH's price performance ratio for buying at the bottom is higher than Bitcoin's. Stock and transfer data of all BTC exchanges In addition to important macro data this week, the New Year in several Asian countries, especially China's Spring Festival, has also had a significant impact on market liquidity. Moreover, the holiday in the United States also adds to the overall liquidity of the market. With BTC prices hovering around $68000, there are still nearly 10000 new Bitcoin assets added to the exchange despite insufficient liquidity. If we look at it over a longer period of time, since entering 2026, the BTC stock on all exchanges has increased by nearly 60000 undigested stocks. However, based on the data transferred to the exchanges, the transfer volume has indeed been decreasing recently, and the number of investors who want to sell has started to decrease before the holidays. This is likely to indicate that the vicinity of $60000 is indeed a good place to open a position. 30 day position and net flow of BTC held by the exchange However, from the data of purchasing power, the market performance is still a mess. As can be seen from BTC's 30 day position, there were signs of purchasing power recovery just a few days ago, but it disappeared again. It is already good that BTC can maintain a buy and sell balance on the exchange now, but in fact, the selling has been increasing during this period. From the data of net traffic, it can also be found that with the decline in BTC price, the selling force transferred to the exchange in recent times has been greater than the withdrawal from the exchange. Investors' emotions and willingness to buy funds are very low. If the market does not usher in a strong positive trend, it is estimated that it will only slowly fluctuate together with the US stock market. Distribution of BTC holdings in the past year Although the data shows that purchasing power is not sufficient, based on the distribution of holdings, especially small-scale investors with holdings of less than 10 Bitcoin in the past week are daring to buy at the bottom, especially when the price of BTC falls below around $60000. The sentiment of small-scale investors is unusually high, which is very similar to the situation where many US stocks are bought by retail investors. However, high net worth users with holdings greater than 10 BTC have not shown significant changes in the past week. With holdings exceeding 165000 BTC, only over 500 BTC have been reduced, and more high net worth users are currently in a wait-and-see stage. On the whole, the market was calm this week without too much fluctuation. Most investors have no intention of selling or buying. On the one hand, they may want to wait for the arrival of low tariffs in the month, and on the other hand, they may want to determine the game between Trump and the Federal Reserve. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits