星球日报|Feb 18, 2026 06:30
**[Renowned "Black Swan Fund" Founder Warns: S&P 500 May Surge to 8,000 Points Before Crashing]**
Odaily Planet Daily News – Mark Spitznagel, founder and Chief Investment Officer of the "Black Swan Fund" Universa Investments, stated that the long-standing upward trend of the U.S. stock market is far from over—at least for now. In a recent letter to investors, Spitznagel wrote that over the next year, the market will remain in a "Goldilocks zone—declining inflation and interest rates, a slowing but not overly slowed economy, and a shift in market sentiment toward euphoria—leading to a continued rise in the stock market, culminating in a parabolic surge." However, he added that "the largest bubble in human history" has now entered its final stage.
Spitznagel's hedge fund, which has been around for nearly two decades, specializes in tail risk hedging, aiming to protect investors' portfolios from the impact of the next major crash. He stated that as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise—a view he has maintained since late 2022. In an interview, he remarked that market euphoria could push the S&P 500 Index to 8,000 points or even higher—followed by a sharp reversal.
What is concerning, he noted, is that if the Federal Reserve maintains current interest rate levels for an extended period, companies will begin to struggle to raise funds. Spitznagel explained that while the economy appears resilient, monetary policy has a lagging effect, and the Fed, overly focused on lagging indicators like inflation, is already behind the curve. "The Fed is currently standing still, but as the economy gradually deteriorates, the market will anticipate more easing policies," he said. Against this backdrop, the stock market will climb on expectations of further rate cuts, only to plummet rapidly when the economy slows. "At some point, the Fed will be powerless to intervene, just as it was in 2007 and 2008."
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