It took less than 10 years for the mobile Internet to complete the journey that the Internet took 20 years to complete. AI may only need a shorter time to complete the journey that the mobile Internet took 10 years to complete. After the bursting of the Internet foam in 2000, there was a downturn in the Internet industry for several years. Now we also see many statements that once the bubble bursts, there will be a downturn for many years. In fact, we are in an era where new technologies are becoming increasingly popular and penetrating. Yesterday's war article on capital expenditures discussed this point, but it's worth bringing it up for further discussion. The core lies in the differences in industrial foundation and user penetration rate. In the 1990s, the Internet was just emerging. It took mankind nearly two decades (from 1990 to 2010) to buy the information and Internet era from the industrial era. The Internet penetration rate in the United States increased from 1% in 1990 to 75% in 2010. 1. When the Internet foam burst in 2000, the Internet penetration rate in the United States was more than 30%. Why did the foam continue to be depressed for many years after the bubble burst? This is because after the collapse of the Internet foam in 2000, the business model of the entire Internet was established in 2006/07 with the increase of penetration rate of Yili: 1) In 2000, Google launched the AdWords advertising platform, marking an important breakthrough in the commercialization of its advertising business. Since then, through continuous optimization of advertising models and expansion of business areas, it has gradually developed into a leading global technology enterprise. Google only started making profits in 2001/02; 2) Since 2000, Amazon has shifted its strategy from accumulating users and gaining market share through periodic losses to exporting technology to generate revenue. In 2003, Amazon basically achieved breakeven, and in 2004, its net profit margin reached 8.5%; 3) In 2003, Tencent QQ rapidly expanded its user base and became the largest instant messaging platform in China. In 2004, Facebook was founded, driving the globalization of social networks. Including value-added services, they also began to be monetized on a large scale in those years We can say that it was the bursting of the Internet foam that forced technology companies to begin to pay attention to commercial cash flow, and finally found several major Internet business models for advertising, e-commerce, games, and value-added services. However, it should always be clear that the continuous improvement of Internet penetration is the fertile soil for the final establishment of the business model, because the user group is large enough. However, it takes time to improve the penetration rate, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s, when human beings are still in the turning point of the industrial era, the information age and the Internet age. The iteration of carbon agent economy to silicon based economy itself is full of hardships. The period from 2000 to 2006/07, when the penetration rate increased rapidly, the period when the business model was established, and the transition period from industrialization to informatization and Internet were the main reasons for the downturn that lasted for many years after the foam burst. 2. All of this has obviously accelerated in the era of mobile Internet In 2010, the Internet penetration rate of the United States was more than 75%, while that of China was close to 40%. The launch of the iPhone 4 in the past decade marked the beginning of the rapid popularization of the mobile Internet. By the end of 2014, there had been more than 240 million smart phone users in the United States, and the penetration rate of mobile Internet was more than 70. At the same time, the number of smart phone users in China exceeded 500 million, and the penetration rate of mobile Internet was close to 40%. The whole decade (2010-2019) was the time when the entire Internet giant was soaring. On the one hand, it can be said that these companies have strong competitive advantages, and on the other hand, it is also a rapid growth stage for the widespread adoption of mobile internet worldwide. It took less than 10 years for the mobile Internet to complete its journey. It took 20 years for the Internet to complete its journey. 3. Now let's look at the AI era The launch of chatgpt3.5 at the end of 2022 marked the beginning of the popularization of AI. The current world is highly mobile, interconnected, and socialized, which actually provides a richer and more fertile soil for the popularization of AI. This means that the penetration rate of new technologies will increase faster, because in the past three decades, the popularity of the Internet and mobile Internet has made all user groups around the world migrate to the Internet. Migration to smartphones. The fertile soil has long been available, laying a solid foundation for the rapid popularization of AI. If 22-25 is the period of rapid popularization of large models. 26 years should be the year when AI agents are widely popularized, and this speed may be even faster. It was said that the mobile Internet took less than 10 years to complete, and it took 20 years for the Internet to complete; Then AI may need a shorter time to complete the journey of mobile Internet that took 10 years. Of course, it's not that the market won't adjust. As we discussed yesterday in the capital expenditure war, changes in business models bring about a downward shift in the valuation center, and competition becomes increasingly fierce. When there are winners, there will naturally be losers. Winners take all, losers lose everything. There are even many new business models and emerging giants. It's just that we don't need to spend 20 years on a boat to obtain the sword of the present, and we can analyze specific problems in the future.