Wintermute: BTC finds support at 200 week moving average, macro clarity is needed to restart upward trend According to Wintermute's research report, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driving factor for short-term volatility. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term funds that can withstand selling pressure) to absorb volatility, the market will experience sharp rises and falls on both long and short ends. From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200 week moving average, which historically has often been the bottom of bear markets. Wintermute believes that before clear signals reappear at the macro level, every rebound will be seen as an opportunity to mitigate risks rather than a reason to chase momentum. For encryption, the key to returning to the upward trajectory still depends on macroscopic clarity. The 200 week moving average is still holding and there has been no structural damage in the market, which means that once macro uncertainty subsides, the pace of recovery may be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a state of interval oscillation and downward trend; The trading position is dominated by leverage, and $70000 remains an important resistance level at the near end. Finally, there may be a recovery in the second half of 2026, but the patience required at that stage may have been exhausted by the vast majority of participants.