Here are some common but unverified assumptions in the Bitcoin narrative: 'Digital Gold' This is an analogy, not proof. Gold has 5,000 years of cultural consensus and industrial use. BTC has only been around for 17 years. The analogy holds only if BTC can continue to gain consensus comparable to gold—a conclusion that needs to be verified, not a starting point. 'It will definitely go up' Historically, BTC has experienced -85% (2018) and -77% (2022) drawdowns. Survivorship bias is strong—you see the curve from $0 to $68K, but not the people who bought at $60K and sold at $16K. Past gains are no guarantee of future performance. 'Inflation hedge' During the global high inflation period in 2022, BTC dropped from $69K to $16K. It did not demonstrate inflation-hedging properties when real inflation hit. BTC behaves more like a risk asset than an inflation hedge. '21 million cap = guaranteed scarcity premium' Scarcity is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. There are countless scarce things in the world that are worthless. Scarcity + demand creates a premium. Whether demand can continue to grow is the key question. 'Decentralization is irreplaceable' Technically, BTC can be forked or replaced by other chains. Network effects are a moat, but they’re not a law of physics.