One sentence: The fate of altcoins Liquidity determines if they can pump × BTC dominance determines when they pump × Narrative determines which ones pump × Tokenomics determines if they can hold after pumping. The 'waterline' for all altcoin price movements. By early 2026, BTC ETFs are expected to absorb $115B+ in assets, and liquidity spillover will be the key catalyst. The altcoin season delay in 2025 is due to institutional funds being concentrated in BTC. Narrative is the short-term direction of capital inflow. It doesn’t decide the total water level but rather where the water flows. Narratives can temporarily make coins fly, but tokenomics decides where they ultimately land. Action plan: Monitor M2 growth rate and BTC Dominance. Only go heavy when liquidity expands + Dominance declines. Q1-Q2 2026 might be the window. Track ≤3 core narratives (AI Agent, RWA, DePIN), and don’t chase outdated narratives. Pick coins with a 12-month unlock rate <15% of circulating supply, actual protocol revenue, and top 10 addresses holding <40%. Risk control: Altcoin positions ≤ 30% of total crypto holdings, single coin ≤ 5%. Reduce positions decisively when Dominance strengthens. Cognitive discipline: When you feel like 'it can still pump,' that’s exactly when you should sell.