Balaji
Balaji|2月 16, 2026 09:36
Many people think of politics as a pendulum. When you point to unprecedented events, they'll respond: no need to worry, the pendulum will swing, and it'll all come back to a stable equilibrium. It's always worked out, and somehow always will. And that's true for many places, much of the time. But sometimes a political situation isn't a pendulum. Sometimes it's best modeled by Galloping Gertie, the former Tacoma Narrows Bridge. You see, that bridge started swinging from left, to right, and then further to the left, and even farther to the right, until it broke into pieces and completely fell apart. That's what happened to China, Germany, and Korea in the 20th century. They shattered into left and right pieces: North Korea and South Korea, East Germany and West Germany, PRC and ROC. And that was just a two-state equilibrium. But Yugoslavia broken into seven nations. The Soviets split into 15 countries. French decolonization gave rise to more than two dozen states, and the sunset of the British Empire created 50+ sovereigns. Now, in some sense, those were eventually stable political equilibria. Just like the pieces of the Tacoma Narrow Bridge did stop swinging. But they stopped after breaking apart, not after coming together.(Balaji)
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