xiyu|Feb 16, 2026 03:48
Bitcoin's price is driven by four forces:
Global liquidity (Fed + global M2) is the master switch
ETF inflows and outflows are the pipeline
The halving cycle is the foundation
Market sentiment and narratives are the thermometer
Leverage? That's just an amplifier, not a trend creator.
The current situation is: the master switch is tightening, the pipeline is slowing down, but the foundation is still there (halving effects usually have a 12-18 month delay), and the temperature is damaged but hasn’t completely collapsed.
Once leverage is cleaned out and volatility converges, the price will naturally recover.
Are you playing defense or buying the dip?
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