Ten years of change, the definition of bear market is being rewritten The on chain trading volume indirectly reflects market activity. The bustling traffic and bustling crowds are the best proof of investors' active participation and BTC's acceptance by more people and funds. At this moment, even if prices have not improved temporarily, as long as people are there, money is there, and hope is there. We distinguish the proportion of transactions on the BTC chain by participants with different fund sizes, and we can see the development and changes of BTC on chain behavior in the past 10 years: (Figure 1: Proportion of on chain transactions with a single transaction value>1 million US dollars) The most intuitive manifestation is that whenever BTC starts to rebound from the top, it is accompanied by the continuous withdrawal of large funds (with a single transaction size greater than 100000 US dollars), and the proportion of transactions continues to decline; At the same time, the proportion of small funds (less than $100000 per transaction) began to increase. This has been particularly evident in the bull to bear phase of the past two cycles. For example, in February 2019, the proportion of large funds was as low as 15%, while the proportion of small funds reached 55% during the same period; At that time, the BTC market was still in a stage of "big players and small players" playing against each other. (Figure 2: Proportion of on chain transactions with a single transaction of less than $100000) By 2023, there will be a significant improvement in this situation. Even during the lowest period of the bear market, the participation of large funds still accounted for 40%, while the proportion of small funds was only 30% during the same period. From this point on, individual investors have gradually withdrawn from the discourse power of the BTC community. However, in this cycle, even though BTC has retreated 50% from its peak, the participation of large funds is still high: the average proportion of 30 days is as high as 72%, while the proportion of small funds during the same period is only a mere 10%. If we put it in the past, it would be like data from the peak of a bull market! This means that almost all large turnover on the chain now occurs between large players. When a group of whales withdraws, the recipient is another group of whales. BTC has evolved from the original "big players exiting, small investors taking over" model to "consensus conversion between new and old whales" to reconstruct the bottom. At this point, we should ask ourselves a question: If the large funds have not left, what are they expecting to stay in the market? I think everyone will have different answers in their hearts. ----------------------------------------------- The reason for writing this data is because a few days ago, I saw several teachers on Twitter discussing 'what is the next narrative to support BTC prices', and there were also doubts about whether there will be another bull market. Although I haven't thought about what kind of grand narrative will support BTC's return to the high point of $120000 in the next cycle, I am not so pessimistic about it. Just because you can't think of it now doesn't mean it won't happen in the future. Just like in 23 years ago, we never expected BlackRock, as the king of ETFs, to personally step down. Prior to this, we also doubted whether BTC could return to its high point of $69000 in the previous round. After all, we are not the rule makers of the game, all we can do is "follow" - the smartest decision maker in the market. Okay, this should be my last on chain data analysis in the Year of the Snake. Taking this opportunity, I would also like to bid farewell to all the colleagues who have been working hand in hand! Wishing everyone all the best, good health, and a happy Chinese New Year! Riding on the Milky Way, the new year begins, and the journey to distant lands is smooth!