The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.2%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 90.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 9.8%. By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut is 26.4%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 71.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate cut is 2.0%. By June, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points has increased to 51.8%. AI interpretation: The high probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged reflects the stability of the current economic environment, and the market's expectations for future interest rate cuts are gradually increasing. Although the probability of interest rate cuts has increased in April and June, the overall expectation of keeping interest rates unchanged still dominates. This situation indicates that the Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious attitude in responding to economic challenges and may continue to observe economic data to determine the direction of future monetary policy.