Phyrex|2月 15, 2026 20:00
Day two of the holiday, during U.S. trading hours, we saw some pullbacks. Judging by the timing, it’s likely tied to expectations around U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff stated that any attack by the U.S. on Iran would serve as a lesson for Trump. However, Iran is also preparing for a second round of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., still hoping for world peace. After all, every time there’s a conflict like this, it’s investors’ wallets that end up footing the bill.
This kind of drop, where the cause is clear, isn’t actually that scary. As long as things don’t escalate into actual conflict and negotiations succeed, expectations will stabilize again. This isn’t even the main issue for the U.S. right now. After the holidays, the U.S. Supreme Court will be addressing Trump’s IEEPA tariffs inquiry, which will be more significant. If Trump can’t use tariffs as a weapon, it’ll help reduce market volatility.
Looking at Bitcoin data, it’s clear this is one of the biggest holidays of the year. With overlapping holidays in Asia and the U.S., liquidity is ridiculously low—like dog-level low. The turnover rate is almost at its lowest point in the past year. Most investors have zero interest in trading BTC right now. Because of this, even small changes in positions or funds can lead to bigger-than-usual fluctuations.
That said, the data structure shows that the distribution of positions is still very healthy. While there’s been a slight pullback, there’s no panic or large-scale selling. The majority of investors remain indifferent. It’s just the poor liquidity that’s amplifying the impact of minor bearish moves. U.S. stock markets are closed on Monday, so let’s see what happens on Tuesday.
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