BlackJack|Feb 15, 2026 13:51
Recently, the market seems to be replicating the mid-2022 trend. If you're paying attention, take a look at the movement from late May to mid-July in 2022 as a reference. Even during periods of consolidation, there’s still room to make some profit.
The tricky part is the Nasdaq’s performance. While a mild rebound was expected in late February, I’m not optimistic about March and early April. Over the past month or so, the Dow hit new highs, but the Nasdaq hasn’t followed suit. This is a classic case of divergence between similar markets. The crypto market will only be relatively safe once the risks in tech stocks are fully released. Considering the Nasdaq’s peak was back in late October last year, the adjustment period has been long enough—it’s just a matter of how deep the correction will be.
Currently, concerns around tech stocks are mainly focused on the massive investments in AI, to the point where even the giants might need to take on debt. Although past earnings reports have confirmed that AI investments can yield returns, the market is understandably worried about future investments exceeding expectations and cutting into profits. The simplest way to ease these fears is the next quarterly earnings reports, especially from the four major players: Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Then there’s Oracle and TSMC. If the reports show that the recent investments have brought equivalent AI revenue, market sentiment could gradually shift. The surge in CDS (credit default swap) trading volumes for these giants reflects this—essentially, buying credit insurance in advance.
Personally, I still lean toward the idea that the AI bubble shouldn’t burst in the first half of the year. If there’s a significant drop in March or April, I’d see it as an opportunity. That’s my current take.
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