2026.2.15 Macro Market Analysis Good morning, bros! After the big drop, the market has been stuck in a slump recently without any rebound. But there are already some signals of bottoming out and recovery. So, will 2026 be a bull year or a bear year? Let’s analyze the upcoming trends. This Friday’s CPI report was positive. The U.S. core CPI year-on-year came in lower than expected, hitting a 5-year low! The probability of the Fed cutting rates before April is 30%, and the likelihood of a rate cut before June exceeds 80%. Meanwhile, the whale ratio is surging, indicating that whales are continuing to accumulate. This is a good sign. Overall, BTC seems to have hit a temporary bottom. But there’s still one last bearish factor unresolved: the possibility of the U.S. striking Iran. Currently, the U.S. Pentagon has notified a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East in response to potential military action against Iran. Trump said yesterday that he’s more inclined to reach an agreement with Iran, but achieving that will be very difficult. From Trump’s political logic, starting a war is a high-risk gamble—if he does, his approval ratings will drop. Oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Fed cutting rates will be off the table. In this year’s November midterm elections, the Republican Party would undoubtedly lose. His family’s Bitcoin business would also take a major hit. So, the probability of no war is 80%, and the probability of war is 20%. One factor that could drive market recovery is the peaceful resolution of the Iran issue within the next two months. Before that happens, BTC is unlikely to see a significant rebound, and it might retest the bottom at around $60,000. During this period, you can buy in stages and sell after the rebound. For the ultimate bottom, you’ll need to wait until around October 2026. But no matter what, we’re very close to the bottom now. The bear market has likely completed about half its cycle, and the ultimate bottom price should be in the $40,000-$55,000 range. For this market, follow Dragon Bro and go for the gold track! Use EA software and AI strategies to run fully automated trades. The returns are still decent, ranging from 3-10% daily! This analysis is just friendly advice. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investments carry risks, so don’t act impulsively—think independently and make your own judgments.