TraderS | 缺德道人|Feb 13, 2026 10:02
Tonight, the CPI data is going to be released—everyone knows how important this is. After Wednesday's super strong non-farm payroll data, the market has largely priced in inflation stickiness and the expectation of delayed rate cuts.
So if tonight's release matches expectations or is slightly higher, the market might not react too dramatically.
But if it unexpectedly comes in lower than expected, showing that inflation is under control, it could trigger a rebound.
For us, lower-than-expected is better than equal to or higher-than-expected.
Considering the lagging decline in housing inflation, the massive downward revision of 2025 employment data, and the release of pricing pressure on core goods, the probability of January CPI unexpectedly dropping might be underestimated by the market. So purely from my personal perspective, I might take a gamble on going long.
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