⏰ Daily thinking/There are only two states in the market, don't invent new concepts anymore Recently, I have seen many people creating new words such as "monkey market" and "dog market". To be honest, these concepts only increase cognitive burden and have no practical value. The logic of market operation is actually extremely simple: -After reaching the peak, it's all a bear market -After bottoming out, it's all a bull market Just so straightforward, there's no need for any fancy new definitions in between. Why do many people like to create new concepts? The fundamental reason is the inability to accept reality. In the late stage of a bull market, I am reluctant to leave, and in the early stage of a bear market, I am unwilling to admit losses, so I find psychological comfort for myself: "Now is not a bear market, it is a volatile market. When the real opportunity comes, I will enter again." The result is often to miss the bottom and chase after the high again. The essence of a cycle is time, not price form Many people are accustomed to defining market conditions based on price trends - they say 'it's not a bear market' when they see a sideways trend, and shout 'a bull market is here' when they see a rebound. But those who truly understand cycles know that there will be rebounds during bear markets and comebacks during bull markets, but these cannot change the direction of the overall trend. I'm too lazy to draw, I can borrow the four-year cycle chart from Wolf Brother @ wolfyxbt to see it clearly: -The bull market phase lasts approximately 1064 days and is a lengthy process of value discovery -The bear market phase lasts approximately 364-413 days and is a rapid process of value regression Current market position analysis According to the cyclical pattern, we are currently in a bear market phase. The characteristic of this stage is that no matter how strong the rebound is, it is essentially a structural adjustment within the bear market, providing opportunities for early profit funds to sell, rather than the beginning of a new round of upward trend. Practical coping strategies: 1. Admit reality - accept the fact that we are currently in a bear market, rather than comforting ourselves 2. Maintain patience - The core task of a bear market is waiting, not frequent operations 3. Be Prepared - Prepare both financially and psychologically for the bottom range of the next cycle Remember one thing: trading does not require complex conceptual packaging, understanding cycles and following trends is enough. The market is always in two states - either digesting the last round of foam or incubating the next round of opportunities. No matter how many labels are attached to the market, it cannot change the fact that it operates according to its own rules. Instead of creating new concepts to confuse oneself, it's better to spend time understanding these simple rules that have been proven countless times by history. From the main road to simplicity, leave the rest to time. BTC Cycle Theory Trading Logic Market Analysis