加密小师妹|Monica|Feb 13, 2026 04:54
The flowing water is not competitive, the competition is endless.
The most frequently asked question by my friends in private is:
What projects are your studio currently working on?
Every time we truthfully answer that we are still fondling Perpdex, such as edgeX and nado, most people's reactions are very disappointed expressions, asking if Perpdex can still be fondled? You see what Lighter and Aster are like, or rather, Dragon Three and Dragon Four have come out, so there can't be any big hair behind them.
But in fact, there is a significant cognitive bias involved here. Firstly, for our small studio, once the project is approved, as long as the odds do not change significantly, we will continue to work on it. So, due to limitations in manpower and funding, only 1-2 projects will be launched simultaneously for a period of time. Because we also need to consider capital turnover, certainty, and whether there is sufficient time.
So, we are definitely not the first to obtain Alpha or action in this market. In this regard, I believe most people or studios are facing the same situation as us.
So, don't easily believe those people who constantly boast about achieving big results in multiple projects at the same time. Observe that those who can truly achieve big results in a single project have silently persisted behind the scenes for a long time, and the case of "Fried Chicken Brother" has also verified this point.
The rumors are spreading, and it is only now that our studio plans to start exploring the market and learn how to participate from scratch. I don't feel ashamed to publicly admit this matter.
But why start predicting the market today? Will it be too late to enter now? Let me share my opinion.
If you think predicting the future market is a real big wind, it's not too late now. The people who can get the results are not necessarily the first ones to come in. Choosing the right project and timing is the most important thing.
The key to that question is: Will predicting the market be the real trend? OK, Although I do not have the ability to predict, let me first present a few facts:
Top VC brands such as A16Z and Paradisam have openly laid out prediction tracks, and have even been listed as one of the most noteworthy tracks in the cryptocurrency market next year.
2. It is predicted that the market track has achieved explosive growth in scale, with transaction volume surging from less than $1 billion to around $50 billion by 2025.
There will be multiple global events in 2026, such as the midterm elections in the United States and the World Cup, which serve as catalysts for predicting market trading and volume.
If we look at it over time, it is predicted that the market may look hot now, but in reality, there has already been a clear differentiation.
On one hand, there are compliance oriented platforms such as Kalshi, but its participation threshold and regulatory attributes determine that it is not suitable for large-scale participation of cryptocurrency native funds.
On the other hand, there are already sizable cryptocurrency prediction markets such as Polymarket, but with the entry of professional players and arbitrage robots, the space for ordinary participants is rapidly being squeezed.
At the same time, there is a "nine sons vying for the throne" on BSC, CZ has interacted with Predict on social media multiple times, and Opinion is about to become the first prediction market to issue coins.
These signals do not necessarily mean who will win, but at least they indicate one thing: the prediction market is far from finalized.
Based on this judgment, when choosing the entry point, we did not look for the "most mature" or "most efficient" predictive market.
@The participation mode presented by predictdotfun is closer to a DeFi oriented structure:
During the process of waiting for the outcome of the event, funds are not completely static, but can continue to operate in the form of interest.
This allows us to participate in predicting the market in a less frictional and more controllable manner at the current stage. Instead of relying on short-term outbreaks of a single event.
Standing in a position where the structure is still forming and allowing for strategy adjustments, slowly participating and continuously observing, is more in line with our rhythm.
So, http://predict.fun For us, it is not a better answer, but a more suitable position to participate at the current stage.
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