The data changes on the Bitcoin chain in the sixth week of 2026- the bull bear turning point, may be an opportunity to start building positions. The biggest shock to the classified currency market this week was when the price of BTC hit $60000 in the absence of obvious bearish sentiment. This price is already below the top of the previous cycle, which means one thing for many players - a bear market has arrived. In 2025, there were many discussions about whether the market was rebounding or reversing. The view was that even though Bitcoin's price was at a new high, the market risk was not relieved and the market did not meet the conditions for reversing. For BTC at that time, it was not a bear market at least. BTC at that time was like AI in the traditional market. Although everyone felt that there was a foam, it had not been punctured. Net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) of Bitcoin From the historical Bitcoin panic data (NUPL), it can be seen that it has always been in the yellow zone, which often represents the market's strong confidence and optimistic outlook. However, from the recent week's data, it can be seen that it has entered the orange phase, where orange represents panic. From the perspective of market sentiment, if the market continues to decline, it is very likely to enter the red phase, which often represents surrender, that is, the significant panic selling caused by the true emotional breakdown. Therefore, the current stage can be said to be the transition phase between bull and bear markets. If the market's confidence continues to be insufficient, a bear market will directly open. But often this kind of time is a good time to start building a position. It doesn't mean to be ALL IN now, but to invest in a planned way during a downturn, such as buying 5% of the position for every $5000 drop, etc. The purpose is not to buy the lowest price, but to have chips in hand when a rebound or reversal occurs. S&P 500 Volatility Index (Panic Index) I have experienced this stage many times, and the latest one was in April 2025. At that time, due to tariff issues, the price of Bitcoin also fell all the way. Many friends said that the bull market was over, a deep bear was coming, and the price of Bitcoin had to be tested at $40000. However, the result was a historical high in less than a month and a half, and it was only yellow at that time. I bought the bottom because VIX fell sharply. From historical data, when BTC's NUPL (LTH) enters red and VIX breaks above 30, it is basically a good buying point. This has also made me develop the habit of buying at the bottom not by looking at the price, but by looking at more indices that have rarely made mistakes in history. Of course, I am still an ordinary person, and sometimes I think the price is quite low and buy them. However, the ones I have bought recently are all for preparation in 2028, which is also part of building a position. The stock of Bitcoin in all exchanges and the amount transferred to the exchanges in the past year From the weekly data of the stock on the exchange, it can be seen that the BTC stock has been decreasing in the past week, but the total amount has been decreasing very slowly, with a decrease of about 12000 Bitcoin per week. However, I have observed from the data that more selling behavior is still on the exchange, that is, a large number of sales are on the exchange, so the BTC stock is not displayed, and only changes when withdrawn to the chain. Therefore, although it seems to be constantly withdrawing (buying), the price is always falling. In addition, in terms of the amount of Bitcoin transferred to the exchange, although the mood has not been good in the past week, the amount of selling transferred has indeed decreased. This indicates that investors are no longer panic selling when facing high prices, but are unwilling to cut too deep. That's also one of the reasons why I said we can try building a warehouse. Last year's stock Bitcoin position on the exchange However, although the selling trend is decreasing, the buying trend has not been evident. That's why I said it's just a time to build positions, not ALL IN. It's clear that there have been five large-scale fundraising events in the past year and a half, with the middle three being very large. The first and second times are very close, and although the fourth and fifth times are also short, it's clear that the buying trend is gradually weakening, which is also a reflection of the decrease in BTC liquidity. At this stage, from the selling power, it can be seen that it is not only on a downhill slope, but almost at the foot of the mountain. The next step is to see whether the market sentiment and liquidity support the increase in BTC's purchasing power. If there are large-scale purchases like the three in the middle, it is a bull market. But the reasons for these three times are: 1+2. The election and Trump's coming to power, that goes without saying. 3. The end of the China US trade war 4+5. Federal Reserve's loose expectations and SEC's innovative exemptions In fact, from a trend perspective, October should be a very stable month. If it weren't for the joint liquidation caused by October 11th, it is very likely that the fifth round would not have separated from the fourth round. The fourth round of fundraising is likely to reach a new high with the help of the October interest rate cut. However, unfortunately, it can be clearly seen from October onwards that there were not too many major setbacks in November and December, and the market is striving to increase purchasing power. But the liquidity gap is too large, and the scale of the fifth fundraising round is the weakest among these five rounds, so buying becomes increasingly weak. So looking back now, whether there will be a sixth one, either an epic positive stimulus or a large-scale easing by the Federal Reserve, if not, I still believe that Bitcoin can slowly rebound, but it's hard to say where it will rebound. Especially before June, the biggest game was Trump's tariff policy and the currency war between Trump and the Federal Reserve. @bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits