Phyrex|Feb 11, 2026 11:41
A Brief Discussion on Bitcoin Spot ETF - Useless Knowledge+1
There have been many articles on BTC spot ETFs recently, with mixed reviews. Some even believe that the initial expectations for BTC spot ETFs have now completely turned into a sell-off in the market, and spot ETFs have become assets that "dogs don't even play with".
I would like to elaborate on some key frames of Bitcoin spot ETFs since January 11, 2024 from a data perspective.
Firstly, institutional purchases of Bitcoin spot ETFs have little effect on spot prices, as they are often used for hedging or arbitrage purposes rather than being bullish on BTC.
Based on the data revealed by 13F, this statement is both correct and incorrect. It can be seen that nearly half of them are institutions buying spot ETFs, but not all of these institutions are used for hedging, and there is no complete data reality. However, I do not think this is the most important. The most important thing is that currently, more than 90% or even more of the 1270839 BTC held by US investors may be locked in.
Many people may not believe it. It's not that a large number of BTC spot ETFs are selling, so how could they be locked in? However, the actual answer may be different from what people imagine. Since the official trading of BTC spot ETFs in the United States on January 11, 2024, the number of Bitcoin held by US ETF institutions is 622351, of which 619162 are gray.
After that, the highest stock of US institutions so far was 1362278 after the close of trading on October 8, 2025. On that day, Grayscale held a total of 224834 BTC, BlackRock held 804309, and third ranked Fidelity held 207371. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was $123000, just after breaking through a historical high.
What is the current stock of all ETF institutions in the United States? Has anyone guessed? Do many friends think that it's less than 100000 pieces, or that it's not as much as the stock on the first day?
In fact, currently all ETF institutions in the United States hold a total of 1270839 Bitcoin, of which Grayscale holds 205294, BlackRock holds 764909, and the third ranked is still Fidelity, holding 189556. This data is equivalent to a decrease of 6.71% in US ETF holdings, totaling 91439, even though BTC prices have fallen by 46%.
So for my opinion on Bitcoin spot ETFs, whether they are hedging, arbitrage, or a decrease in interest are not the most important factors. The most important thing is to lock in the liquidity of 1.27 million Bitcoin. Of course, this number may decrease or increase in the future, no one knows, but at least for now, there are indeed so many locked in, which should be the biggest help of spot ETFs to the Bitcoin field.
Especially spot ETFs do not provide much help to spot prices. Whether it is buying or selling AP, it is highly likely that they are not in the secondary market, so buying and selling are difficult to directly affect prices. This is similar to MSTR, which, including institutions such as MSTR, should be the biggest help to Bitcoin by locking in liquidity. Perhaps one day these will become selling pressure on the market, which is very likely, but not currently.
Investors in ETFs are indeed buying less and less, and their interest in cryptocurrencies is decreasing, as evidenced by the data. However, these people rarely sell the ETFs they have already bought.
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