For the first time since 2022: BTC returns to the blue line support zone once again ☄️ Continuing the quote below, when I shared with you last week about the power of the blue line, BTC is still above 73K; Within two days after the post was published, The price went straight up to 60K and arrived at the blue line area in one breath. Although a few days have passed, I feel it is still necessary to formally post and share, At the same time, I will also update the latest data of the current model ： The indicator in the attached figure is "STH-RP with Deviation Adjustment". Here, let me help you review its principle: ➡️ Calculate the mean and standard deviation of STH-MVRV since 2018 ➡️ Multiply STH-RP by the mean ± n standard deviations of STH-MVRV ➡️ The reason for using data after 2018 as the calculation benchmark is that, The reason is that STH-MVRV after 2018 exhibits significant mean regression characteristics. Red line=STH-RP multiplied by the mean of STH-MVRV plus 1 standard deviation Yellow line=STH-RP Green line=STH-RP multiplied by "Mean of STH-MVRV -1 standard deviation" Blue line=STH-RP multiplied by 'Mean of STH-MVRV -1.5 standard deviations' Detailed concept explanation of the model: https://(((x.com))/market_gegar/status/1902195178993279264 // The current price of the blue line is approximately 67321 In the previous analysis post (quoted below), I explained in detail the concept of the model blue line to everyone: Since the end of 2018, BTC has touched the blue line a total of 5 times, each time showing signs of bottoming out. This includes both periodic bottoms and final cyclical bottoms; Sometimes it is a direct rebound, while other times it is an increase after bottoming out and shaking. If you want to delve deeper into these historical cases, it is strongly recommended to first refer to the following citation, I have attached detailed explanations in this post To be honest: If you really haven't read the quote below, I sincerely recommend that you spend three more minutes reading it, Then read today's post again, you will have a more comprehensive understanding of the current market situation. // In yesterday's analysis post (https://(((x.com))/market_gegar/status/2021037913686016212), I have shared my views on the upcoming market situation with everyone in detail. The following is a key summary: ➡️ On 2/05, there was an extremely large volume, and the panic and greed index dropped to an extremely low level ➡️ Combining the 'Model Blue Line' 」 The support effect is high, and there is a high probability of opening wide oscillations in the future In summary, I believe that the support effect of the blue line, after the massive occurrence of 2/05, It has been basically confirmed that the upcoming wide range oscillation structure will determine whether BTC rebounds or reverses. // Add a little more ： Many people still haven't figured out the concept of 'on chain analysis support', At that time, I also explained in detail once in the quotation below, but now someone is still asking, So I plan to explain it again. The concept of 'support' in on chain analysis is quite different from that in technical analysis, The price can easily fall below or rise above these levels in a short period of time. For example, 'support' does not mean 'this position cannot be breached', But it refers to the high probability of a rebound or even a reversal of the market once it falls to this position. And the blue line of the STH-RP model with deviation adjustment shared in this article 」 Similarly, I will directly quote my original text in the following citation: Although there is a high probability of a strong rebound after the price reaches the blue line, But it doesn't mean it's' immediately ', it's entirely possible to oscillate around the blue line for 1-2 months // Finally, we can see that the current blue line and STH-RP are steadily moving downwards, As time goes by, more short-term holders will participate in the turnover process, Therefore, as long as the price remains in the current region for a longer period of time, both STH-RP and the blue line will drop to lower positions. Here, perhaps we can make an interesting guess ： The realized price and Cointime price in the deep bear valuation model, They are gradually moving upwards over time (even at a slow pace); And the blue line of the model gradually moves downwards over time. Latest BTC Deep Bear Extreme Valuation Data https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2019588384537391573 So, if the oscillation time is long enough, does it mean that at some point in the future, We can see that Cointime Price or Realized Price resonates with the blue line ❓ If it really happens, it may be the perfect window for us to heavily invest .. However, it may be too early to say these things now, as the turbulence has just begun, Next, there may be some wear and tear, and maintaining patience is the best policy. The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources The 'Golden Pit One Step Away': The PSIP Periodic Bottom Signal is within reach https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2020675527812792811 The emergence of extremely large quantities: the starting point of a new round of oscillating games https://(((((x.com)))))/market_beggar/status/2021037913686016212