Phyrex|2月 10, 2026 19:39
Today's assignment is fairly easy to write, and I feel that the market is still calm. Recently, I am not keen on macro data. The main reason is that all the data now may not determine the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve after June. If Walsh is the spokesman of Trump, whether the data is good or bad will not change the direction of interest rate reduction. If Walsh becomes the second Powell after taking office, although it will be more difficult in 2026, the probability of risks in the United States will be reduced in the future.
So I personally think that all the data is not the most important at present. The most important thing is how many "nails" Trump can plant in the Federal Reserve and how much the "weight" of the Federal Reserve chairman can be. At present, I can think of the most interesting scenario that Walsh shouts for relaxation with a few things like Waller, but most directors insist on looking at the data, but some friends say that the Federal Reserve chairman's decision on interest rates is more important, and I'm waiting to see.
The market in the first half of the year may not be so good. Trump's tariff should be able to predict the changes that will have an impact on the market before the chairman of the Federal Reserve takes office. It is estimated that it will be discussed after.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, although there seems to be a dense reduction in holdings, the actual turnover is not very high, and it can even be said to be a normal state. Moreover, it can be clearly seen that the main force of turnover is short-term investors. In fact, many investors can expect the price of BTC to rise in the future, so the more they lose, the less willing they are to sell. However, everyone is waiting for lower prices and the lack of liquidity, which leads to insufficient purchasing power.
From the perspective of chip structure, it can be intuitively observed that there is not much change in the chips on the left and right sides of URPD, and most investors are still watching, but the panic has increased the selling of short-term investors. The current market mainly lacks confidence.
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