6.90！ clap of thunder! Today, the offshore exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar reached 6.9, setting a new high in recent times. At the end of November last year, the offshore exchange rate of RMB was about 7.12 yuan to 1 US dollar, with an appreciation of more than 2100 basis points in three months. In April 2025, when Trump announced "equivalent tariffs," the exchange rate was approximately 7.428 Chinese yuan to 1 US dollar. Due to changes in interest rates, the current loss has increased by 3%. Will it continue to shrink? If you exchanged US dollars in April last year and deposited a fixed-term deposit in a bank in Hong Kong, you could receive an annual interest rate of 4%. Due to changes in interest rates, I have already incurred a 3% loss, and of course, the same goes for the U in my hand. Personally, I have already incurred losses on two large vehicles, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 35% during this period. So many investors who switch to the US dollar have regretted it. Some people exchanged their US dollars back for Chinese yuan early on and entered the stock market/cryptocurrency circle. Many people are amazed by this wave of exchange rate appreciation: the economy feels so cold, shouldn't it depreciate? How to do the opposite? The main reason is that after the epidemic, developed countries such as Europe and America have widely scattered money, causing serious inflation. The CPI in the United States reached an astonishing 9.1% in June 2022. Later, the Federal Reserve quickly raised interest rates, but it has not completely contained inflation. Starting from September 2024, the United States began a cycle of interest rate cuts when the inflation rate was above 3%. People who have been to the United States in the past two years have deeply felt that the prices in the United States have changed beyond recognition compared to before the end of 2019. The prices including manual services are outrageously expensive. During this period, we were experiencing deflation and there was a K-shaped divergence in prices between the two countries. But in recent years, Chinese manufacturing has achieved a magnificent transformation and become more competitive. If there were no major changes not seen in a century and China US relations had returned to before 2013 or 2012, the Chinese yuan would have been exchanged for 5 yuan or 4.5 yuan to 1 US dollar. Of course, if the two countries engage in intense competition, it is possible to see 8 yuan or 8.5 yuan exchanged for 1 US dollar. The situation afterwards was basically like this: the tariff war in April was unprecedentedly fierce, and an agreement was reached at the end of October, taking only six months. But this agreement suspends mutual tariffs for one year and expires in November 2026. So there are still some suspense this year. Trump is likely to visit in April, and there may be a follow-up visit before the end of the year, indicating that G2 relations have entered a stable period. If that's the case, the sustained and slow appreciation of the RMB will continue for a period of time, and it's not impossible to see 6.5 in 2 to 3 years. The main logic of appreciation is: 1. The progress of China's economic transformation and upgrading is smooth, and its competitiveness is constantly increasing; 2. Previously, the exchange rate was undervalued; 3. The Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the United States; 4. Hot money continues to flow into the Chinese capital market; 5. A slight appreciation is beneficial for combating internal competition and balancing relationships with trading partners. Of course, if you are a long-term investor, you don't have to worry about exchange rate issues, time will give you the answer.