The market has returned to the 70000 yuan defense battle, but the danger has only just begun The rebound this weekend looks quite strong, but the probability of a reversal is not that high. If you observe carefully, you will find that this rebound is actually only one wave. It means pulling directly from 60000 to the 72000 line, and then the market will return to oscillation, even leaning towards weakness. Yesterday and today, there was no clear sign of the market continuing to move upwards, and now even 70000 yuan is starting to lose its grip. So the current market situation cannot be too optimistic. Because even in standard bear markets like 2018 and 2022, the market will still experience several strong rebounds of this level after extreme panic declines. The key is not whether there is a rebound, but how the rebound came about. 1、 Let's put the conclusion first: this is a rebound, not a reversal The surge from 60000 to 72000 is indeed significant, but the structure is not "clean". Within day rebound of 12%+ 17% rebound from the lower point Directly erase the entire 14% decline in the previous period The first reaction of this intensity is of course: after clearing, the dust settles. But the problem is that the rebound did not grow from the belief in spot prices. 2、 The underlying color of the decline: it was never "the coin circle's own business" Returning to last Friday's last drop Bitcoin plummeted from around 73000 to a low of 62000, with a daily settlement of nearly 1 billion US dollars. What's even more concerning is that the open interest in futures had already voluntarily decreased from $61 billion to $49 billion prior to this. that is to say: The market has already gone through a round of leverage, but it has been patched up again. The trigger is not inside the encryption, but more like a cross asset risk aversion diffusion: Technology stocks fell synchronously Severe fluctuations in precious metals Silver plummeted by 18% in a single day at one point The overall risk assets have been compressed This explains why it looks like the "global search for exports" flavor of 312. 3、 Derivatives signals are the foundation: the 'physical rebound' under the fear structure If you only look at the price, you will feel that it has fallen sharply and pulled even harder. But looking at the structure of derivatives, you will find that this is a typical extreme state: The funding rate is negative Inverted volatility term structure 25 delta skewness pressure to around -13% This is not a market with bullish confidence. This is a market where everyone is buying insurance but is forced to hold positions. In this structure, as long as there is a slight macro relief, The rebound is almost a physical inevitability. 4、 Why can it rebound? The answer is not in the cryptocurrency circle What truly changed the pace on February 6th was the sharp turn in the traditional market: S&P+1.97% Nasdaq+2.18% Dow Jones Industrial Average+2.47% The semiconductor index surged 5.7% At the same time: Gold rebounds by 3.9% Silver rebounds by 8.6% The US dollar index has fallen Risk appetite suddenly rebounded. Bitcoin is more like a passive follower of high beta assets in this process, rather than a dominant player. Technology stocks have stabilized, while metals have rebounded, Bitcoin was naturally pulled up together. 5、 Why is it pulling so hard? The answer is on the bearish side The reason why the rebound is violent essentially indicates one thing: The bears are too crowded. Extreme put option skewness Crowded Downward Hedge Macroscopic turn, space-time head forced to compensate So this wave is more like: Short covering+forced position adjustment+liquidity events instead of: Active entry of spot funds and repricing of long-term long positions That's also why it only has a "wave" and can't be pushed after being pulled. 6、 The most important point is that the options market is not buying it at all If 70000 is really the 'bottom', the options market will not be in its current position. But the reality is: Options expiring at the end of February Maximum open interest amount Still concentrated in the range of 60000 to 50000 Traders are still investing heavily in protection after the rebound, betting on a second dip. This is not pessimism after the fact, it is a forward-looking judgment invested with money. 7、 Where is 70000 currently located? Stress testing position, not a bullish fortress The current 70000 is more like a 'dividing line': Can't hold on, no surprise Just holding on doesn't mean it's safe Whether one can stand firm depends on three conditions: 1) Macro rebound needs to continue If the US stock market continues to weaken, Bitcoin cannot stand alone. 2) Leverage needs to continue cooling down The decline in open interest volume does indeed reduce the risk of a 'vacuum decline', but as long as leverage is built up again, the danger will immediately come back. 3) Miners' stress needs to be alleviated The hash price has fallen to near historical lows, and the difficulty adjustment expectation has been lowered by 13% or more. If the price within the adjustment window can be stabilized, the marginal selling pressure will be significantly reduced. 8、 Why hasn't the logic of 'washing again' died yet? Because the reverse signal has always been: Option positioning still biased towards short The structure of derivatives is more like a 'relief rally under fear' than a trend reversal ETF funds are still flowing out, and institutional allocators are still taking risks As of February 5th, the net outflow of Bitcoin ETF for the month was nearly $700 million. This is not the rhythm of're entering '. 9、 So what should we do now? At this point, the two most common mistakes are: Treat rebound as reversal Take the shock as an opportunity In history, what really causes people to lose money is often not the decline itself, but several rebounds that look like reversals after the decline. At this position, emotions have just crawled out of panic, but confidence has not returned. So strategically, it is more suitable for: Watch more and move less, be cautious. Wait for the market to provide a clearer direction, rather than being led by a big bullish candlestick. 10、 Summary Pulling back from 60000 to 70000, this rebound is real. But its composition is more inclined towards: Forced liquidation Structural compression Macro wheezing Instead of a trend reversal. 70000 is not the finish line, it is just the baseline for the next round of long short debate. Whether or not to hold on depends not on how excited the bulls are, but on: Can the macro continue to give face Will leverage lose control again Will the funds really come back Before these questions have answers, This rebound can only be considered as a temporary revival.