Foresight News|Feb 10, 2026 09:42
**[Wintermute: Last Week's Capitulation Selling May Lead to a Volatile Bottoming Phase]**
Foresight News reports that Wintermute stated last week’s market exhibited characteristics of capitulation selling: volatility surged, over $2.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, and buying support emerged around the $60,000 price level. Open interest continued to accumulate during the decline, while funding rates turned sharply negative due to short positions increasing. A violent rebound occurred on Friday. In an environment of subdued spot trading volume, leveraged positions are dominating price movements. If open interest fails to rebuild significantly, the market is unlikely to establish a sustainable directional trend. Structural recovery requires the return of spot demand, but there are currently no clear signs of this.
The more severe reality is that digital asset institutions are collectively holding unrealized losses of approximately $25 billion, concentrated among a few entities. Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the cost basis of most institutional holdings, and net asset premium rates continue to compress. These entities are more likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach rather than act as marginal buyers. In the current environment, their incentive to replenish capital through new financing has significantly diminished. The market may enter a phase of heightened volatility and bottoming consolidation. Sustained upward movement is unlikely until Coinbase premiums turn positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Currently, retail funds are dispersed across other asset classes, while institutional funds flowing through ETFs and derivatives have become the core factor driving market direction.
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