BTC Miner once again shut down again. I checked tonight, On February 7th, the difficulty of BTC mining plummeted from 145T to 125.86T, It fell by 11% in one breath, the largest decline since China's mining ban in 2021. I consulted a miner, He believes that the policy document on February 6th, titled 'Eight Departments: All Virtual Currency Related Businesses Prohibited in China', has a significant impact on the shutdown. The mined coins are not enough to pay for the electricity bill. The average cost of mining a BTC now ranges from 75000 to 90000 yuan, Who can withstand losing tens of thousands of dollars every time they dig. Of course, we all know that every time miners collectively surrender in history, it is actually a bottom signal. The question is, how long does it take to grind the bottom? Two data points are worth referencing. One is the speed of computing power recovery. In history, it took an average of 1-2 months from the collective shutdown of miners to the recovery of computing power, with the longest delay being 4 months. The second is the level of pain experienced by miners, known as the Puell Multiple Index. Nowadays, the daily income of miners is only 70% of the average annual level, while in history, every time it really bottomed out, it would drop to 30-40%. The two indicators currently point to: it has not yet fallen through, and looking at the situation, it is highly likely that it will take another 2-3 months of grinding. Of course, I think this round is different. After institutional funds entered the market, BTC's trend followed more closely with the liquidity of the US stock market, and the influence of miners weakened marginally. There is another piece of data that I would like to share with everyone: Miners buy during surrender period, with a 77% probability of positive returns within 180 days and an average increase of 72%. So the bottom is boiled out. Come on.