大宇
大宇|2月 09, 2026 23:46
Warning: Ignoring short-term fluctuations, AI investment will grow 100 times People who have experienced at least one market cycle instinctively remain wary of price increases that far exceed historical averages. Having witnessed the Internet foam, the 2008 global financial crisis and the rise and fall of cryptocurrency, you will establish a pattern recognition alarm mechanism in your brain. Many people will be alert to whether the current AI foam is too big and the price is too high? You don't want to rush into the market because the price is too high, nor do you want to sell your assets because the price is too high. But we must recognize that we are currently in one of the most unique periods of asymmetry in history. The only thing we should do now is to extend the investment period and completely abandon short termism. It is foolish to worry too much about foam. Trying to enter the market at the right time is also foolish. Short term fluctuations and adjustments always occur, but due to our proximity to the singularity, these fluctuations are completely noise. The fields of artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, and innovation will experience explosive growth. In the next decade, we will have billions (or even more) of artificial intelligence agent workers, humanoid robots, space data centers, multi planet colonization, significantly improved medical technology, and fundamentally change the speed and quantity of technological breakthroughs in all fields. In the next twenty years, we will achieve more technological progress and economic growth than the entire history of human civilization combined. We have entered the steep phase of the J-shaped curve, but if we zoom in to daily or weekly progress, it is difficult to notice this. 100% of Anthropic's product code is now written by Claude. Product managers have a virtual team of software engineers who can almost change time. The increase in product iteration speed for companies that efficiently utilize artificial intelligence is not in single digits or double digits, but in triple digits. And the functions of these tools are still improving at a faster pace. It doesn't really matter whether we officially reach the Age of Artificial Intelligence (ASI) in 2027 or 2029. It will eventually come. By then, the price of the asset you want to own will have multiplied several times. The actual economic growth in the next 3-10 years is likely to reach a level of 20 standard deviations in any historical distribution. This growth was previously considered almost impossible to achieve, but was driven by unprecedented second-order and third-order changes. Traditional valuation models are unable to price these changes. The potential growth space is so enormous that it is difficult to capture it using traditional present value calculation methods. The speed of wealth growth will be extremely astonishing, just like how cryptocurrencies initially created numerous billionaires and millionaires in a short period of time, but on a much larger scale. If we do not pay attention to it, it is difficult to grasp such a rapidly rising price. But unlike previous foam, the creation of real economic value will be able to better keep pace with the vertical growth of assets. In the past three years, those who understand the law of exponential growth and invest have benefited greatly. If you haven't realized this yet, it's not too late. Always keeping an eye on downside risks is important, but it is the biggest upside risk in world history. Learn to withstand longer periods of risk. Now is not a good time for trading. For the vast majority of people, investing usually yields higher returns than trading, but the gap between expected returns from trading and investing will be greater than ever before. What is the value of call options implied in singularity events?
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