The Relative Unrealized Loss of Short-Term Holders (STH-RUL) has exceeded 5 standard deviations (purple line), which is a signature signal of extreme panic! This is the first time it has appeared in this cycle, but it’s the 11th time across all 4 previous cycles, meaning it happens on average 3 times per cycle. It seems like the saying 'third time’s the charm'; but logically speaking, the establishment of any bear market bottom often occurs after the bulls completely surrender and give up hope, only for the market to bring new hope in return — if it doesn’t happen once, then it happens again. Currently, BTC has already pulled back 50% from its peak. It may not need to drop another 50% for the next STH-RUL spike, but one thing is certain: before the bear market bottom is confirmed, this likely won’t be the only time. This is also why I believe that even though BTC is relatively close to the bear market bottom in terms of 'space,' it’s still clearly not there yet in terms of 'time.' ----------------------------------------------- The above is for learning and discussion purposes only, not investment advice!