qinbafrank
qinbafrank|2月 08, 2026 00:39
The voting for Japan's House of Representatives election has begun, and we need to pay attention to how the election results might impact the market. Back in late January, the USD/JPY exchange rate kept climbing close to the critical 160 level, and on January 23, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the exchange rate https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2015622853899759908?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, which caused a minor shock to the market at the time. By the end of January, the impact had eased, but this week, the USD/JPY rate started climbing again, rising from last week's 152 to hit 157.2. This election is mainly a showdown between the Liberal Democratic Party/Innovation Party and the Centrist Reform Alliance. According to current polls, Takashi's support rate remains high. If Takashi achieves a major victory in this House of Representatives election, the market will anticipate her expansionary fiscal policies https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1980539249524109742?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A to continue being strongly implemented. The result would likely be further increases in long-term bond yields and a depreciation of the yen. The U.S. and Japan might intervene in the exchange rate again, which could lead to market concerns about Japanese carry trade funds flowing back. On the other hand, if the Centrist Reform Alliance wins, Takashi's ability to push her policies forward will be significantly weakened in the future. Long-term bond yields would stabilize, the yen's depreciation trend would slow down, and Japan's domestic market might experience turbulence, while external markets could remain stable.
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