PANews|Feb 07, 2026 14:20
[Analysis: This cycle exhibits characteristics of a 'reverse altcoin season,' with structural weakening and intensified divergence]
PANews, February 7 – Analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on the X platform, pointing out that this cycle may have shown a 'reverse altcoin season' different from the traditional model. Historically, altcoin seasons typically occur when Bitcoin rises, followed by capital rotation into altcoins, driving a broad market rally. However, the current cycle is more characterized by structural weakening of altcoins and intensified divergence.
A review of the cycle's trend shows that Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000 following the FTX incident in November 2022, subsequently entering a bull market and reaching a high of approximately $126,000 around October 2025. However, during this period, the market did not experience a typical broad-based altcoin rally phase. Most altcoins exhibited characteristics such as breaking long-term trend channels, losing key support levels, and increased downward volatility.
In this environment, market opportunities are more concentrated in structural divergence and two-way trading rather than unilateral upward trends. From a market structure perspective, the current phase resembles a selective deleveraging and valuation correction stage for altcoin assets, rather than a traditional comprehensive altcoin bull market. In the short term, the market may continue its divergent pattern, and structural downside risks have yet to be fully released.
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