paulwei|2月 05, 2026 23:37
3 hours ago, BTC hit a low of 62k.
Here’s something that might sound dumb,
but from a certain perspective, I think it’s somewhat helpful.
It’s a way to adjust your emotions
when influenced by the surrounding sentiment,
helping you detach your subjective feelings
from the local 'stuck in the mountain' mindset a bit.
Sentiment analysis + the perspective of 'time > price.'
A:
From mid-January to early February, there were three big weekly red candles,
dropping from over 90k to over 60k,
with an average weekly drop of 10k.
On February 5th, a single daily candle dropped from 73k to 62k,
which means a 10k drop in just one day.
B:
Based on the weekly drop rate mentioned above,
another 6 weekly candles would bring it to zero by mid-March.
Based on the daily drop rate mentioned above,
another 6 daily candles would bring it to zero by February 10th.
C:
If you believe hitting zero is impossible,
then it means this drop rate cannot continue at the same pace,
and the deadline for this continuation is the timeframes mentioned above.
Meanwhile,
what you can see on X today,
the overall sentiment about BTC’s drop,
mainly stems from these three weekly candles
and the February 5th daily candle
with the '-10k/week' and '-10k/day' drop rates.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment on X regarding BTC’s weekly/daily-level movements
(which roughly represents market sentiment)
will shift, at the latest,
by mid-March (weekly) / February 10th (daily).
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