Phyrex|2月 05, 2026 19:00
My headache has worsened and my homework has become more difficult. It's not because of the decline, but because the reason for the decline is still unclear. It feels like an emotional breakdown, but the reason for the breakdown is unknown. Without knowing the reason, it's difficult to judge the timing of a rebound. Currently, not only BTC is falling, but also the US stock market is falling. However, looking at the ratio of the decline in the US stock market and Bitcoin, it's clear that the liquidity of cryptocurrencies is currently in a mess.
The price of US $66000 has fallen to the full extent of Trump's rise from the election to taking office. This price is even lower than the low point of the previous cycle, not to mention that at present, Bitcoin miners will shut down as long as they are higher than 21 w/t. However, I don't think the decline in mining difficulty is very serious, which means that either many miners do not shut down when the shutdown price is reached, or everyone has used advanced equipment to shut down at a lower price.
The worst thing is that COIN HOOD CRCL MSTR, a cryptocurrency related stock, has significantly reduced its holdings. Even gold and silver have declined. Now the overall risk market sentiment is very poor. Let's see what Trump can do.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, there is already a panic, and the panic is quite severe. The data is densely packed with sell offs, but the main sellers are short-term investors. The biggest question now is how long the panic will last. The first thing to consider is the reaction of Asian investors during the day tomorrow, and then whether American investors will continue to sell at night. Recently, it has been mostly during Asian time that prices can be maintained, while American investors are even more aggressive in selling.
The chip structure is still very stable, which is also a headache. It can be seen that even early loss making investors did not show signs of significant reduction in holdings, which is very different from the past. The rapid decline is not due to a large amount of selling, but more likely due to insufficient liquidity.
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