Let's talk about this round of selling in the US stock market again. The main reason is that the macro industry is only a secondary factor. On Wednesday, a concept of "spring market crash" was proposed, which was actually first discussed with friends in late January. Many people are looking for various reasons, especially from a macro perspective. In fact, this time there is not a major macro problem, and the logic of the sharp decline driven by the tariff war in the first quarter of last year is still different. More importantly, there have been some minor issues with funding and leverage within the AI industry and in the market itself. How do I say this? 1. Let's talk about the internal AI industry first 1) Last Thursday, Microsoft's financial report was strong, but the growth rate of its cloud business was slightly lower than expected, and its guidance for the next quarter is also slightly lower. Microsoft fell sharply. At that time, here was https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2016904513613964? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed before 2) Then in January, Claude and Gemini both vigorously promoted their own agents, causing a sharp drop in software stocks. On February 3rd, Anthropic launched 11 intelligent agent plugins for Claude Cowork, covering core business scenarios such as sales, finance, and law. Further drive down software and SaaS stocks significantly. Since there are agents, why use those complex software? This is the most intuitive feeling in the market. 3) Last Saturday here https://(((x.com))/qinbufark/status/2017610365505572989? When it comes to s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A, the game between Nvidia and OpenAI in the financing process is the most noteworthy issue. Anyway, it will cause market concerns, and at that time, it was also discussed that it would trigger a valuation adjustment. It is difficult to resolve this market concern before the completion of this round of financing for OpenAI. 4) The performance of AMD's stock price after its financial report was discussed at the time, which was https://((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2018853192180846881? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A The high expectations in the market now require explosive data to support an upward trend. Whether the performance is good or not, it can trigger profit taking. 5) And today's Google financial report was explosive enough, but even more explosive was the capital expenditure guidance. The capital expenditure for 26 years doubled compared to 25 years, which was 50% higher than market expectations, basically eating up Google's free cash flow and cash holdings for a year. It is normal for the market to have concerns What is the core? Investors are more concerned about the growth pace, marginal changes in future guidance, and potential cost/share pressures in AI scale competition. In a high expectation environment, any points that do not completely exceed expectations or significantly increase cost items may amplify the sell-off. This means that there are problems in the AI industry 2. The market itself is leveraged 1) Is Tuesday here https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2018702656986923143? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has talked about that the latest survey in January showed that the cash position of fund managers was at a historical low of 2%, and at the same time, the position also dropped to the lowest level in eight years. The bulls are out of bullets, and there is not enough power to go any further; The short position has been completed, and there is no fuel for short selling. 2) Previously, according to FINRA data, the margin debt of the US stock market reached $1.23 trillion, setting a new high for the seventh consecutive month and a historic high. Historical trends show that high leverage is often associated with market peaks. And the credit balance of US stock investors (including free credit cash and margin account credit balance minus debt) is -81.41 billion US dollars, close to the historical lowest, indicating that investors have exhausted their credit limit and cannot increase leverage. What do these two points indicate? The market risk appetite is extremely high, but there is a lack of upward momentum and insufficient fuel for short selling. Any industrial problems can trigger adjustment and selling. 3. However, the current macro adjustment is a secondary factor: 1) Walsh has been nominated, and the market is concerned about his interest rate cuts and expressions, but upon closer inspection, it is difficult to push for the balance sheet reduction he advocates this year. Is Monday here https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2018129302114689163? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed before 2) The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate cuts in January, and even in March. I have also talked about Powell before, at most once before the end of his term in May Reduce interest rates or not. The market is not surprised by this 3) Liquidity is still slowly recovering. These did not happen just this week, so I personally believe that the main reason for the US stock sell-off this time is the industry and the market itself, and the macro is only a secondary factor. In a tweet about Wednesday's "Spring Robbery Market", it was mentioned that the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, has been sideways for three months, but at a deeper level, there is still a lack of strong upward catalysts. In essence, the main AI of the US stock market still needs some time to form a larger range of iterations. Normally, if you can't break through upwards, then look for support downwards. For individual stocks with good performance but not explosive enough, then kill the valuation. If the performance is flawed, then kill the performance. It is expected that the overall market will adjust from a small to a medium level, but in fact, it would be better to adjust further. The valuation is in place, it's not so expensive anymore, it's another good opportunity to get on the car. ” But it does not mean that the trend is over, but rather a normal adjustment in the process of industrial iteration. Of course, the turning point of this adjustment depends on the significant progress in the industry before further improvement in the macro level 1) OpenAI's new round of $100 billion financing has been finalized, while Oracle's new round of $50 billion in equity and debt financing has been finalized, with half of the total. 2) The trend of agents is more clear 3) Trump jumped out to the bottom. 4) Let everyone go from the tentative interest rate cut to seeing the dawn of interest rate decline again.