Hai Ge observes daily 20260205: core viewpoint The current market is in an extremely pessimistic stage dominated by bear crushing. Among the 32 indicators, there are as many as 21 bearish indicators and only 2 bullish indicators, and the bullish power has almost dissipated. Bitcoin fell below $69000 within the day, hitting a new low for Trump's presidency, with a cumulative pullback of over 40% since its historical high in October 2025. My strategy: Give up the illusion of buying at the bottom, focus on defense, and wait for the market panic to fully release before considering opportunities for structural rebound. The short-term key support is in the range of 68000-69000 US dollars, and if it falls, it may accelerate its downward trend to 60000-65000 US dollars. ✍️ Breaking down the power of long and short positions Absolute dominance of bears in 21 areas 1. Macro and liquidity deterioration: The hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve have strengthened, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed risk assets; ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows (nearly $4 billion in the past three months), with institutional fund withdrawals exacerbating liquidity depletion; Stable coin growth turns negative, USDC/USDT exchange rate bearish, and market purchasing power continues to shrink. 2. Comprehensive breakthrough in technical structure: The price fell below all key moving averages (including SMA120), and the daily RSI entered the oversold zone but did not bottom out and deviated; The forward pressure level is bearish, and the long liquidation intensive area has moved down to $68000-70000, forming layers of selling pressure. 3. Emotional and financial breakdown: The enthusiasm of both retail investors and institutions is weak, the trading volume of altcoins is shrinking, and the proportion of Bitcoin market value is decreasing, indicating a comprehensive withdrawal of funds; Scattered bullish signals (2 items) 1. VDD bullish: The unrealized loss indicator on the chain is close to the historical bottom area, indicating that the market may be in a temporary oversold state; 2. Some traders went against the trend and bought at the bottom: top traders such as Vida and Risk took short positions around $70500, but they were all short-term operations. Uncertainty (9 items) The unclear direction of market stage, NUPL profit and loss status, and micro strategy holding costs reflects the market's search for a new balance in panic. Key signal monitoring 1. Downward risk trigger point: If the intraday closing price falls below $68000 (the 200 week EMA coincides with the 2024 low), the next target is $65000 (Polymarket's prediction probability is 82%), and in extreme cases, it may drop to $55000. 2. Signals to be observed for rebound: Recovering 72000 US dollars (4 hours MA5) in bulk and stabilizing, accompanied by the recovery of contract holdings and the normalization of funding rates; Macro shift: The Federal Reserve sends dovish signals or geopolitical risks ease (such as loosening tariff policies). 3. Risk of counterfeit currency linkage: The total market value of altcoins has fallen to a low point in 2024/2025. If the market value of Bitcoin continues to decline, it may trigger a collapse of small market value assets. Operational framework 1. Position management Reduce spot positions to below 10% and retain 90% cash. Clear all positions in altcoins to avoid stampede during liquidity crises; Fully deleverage leveraged accounts to avoid liquidation risks before a rebound (over 170000 positions have been liquidated in the past 24 hours). 2. Batch layout conditions In the extremely pessimistic zone, take a light position and try to go long: close to $68000 and RSI<20, build positions in batches of 3% (stop loss set at $66000); Confirmation of breakthrough on the right side: If the volume breaks through $72000 and cannot be broken, it can chase a 5% increase (target $75000). 3. Risk control bottom line A single loss shall not exceed 1% of the total funds; If $70000 cannot be recovered within 3 days, further reduce the position to 5% to prevent bearish risks. Summary: The current market is suppressed by a triple pressure of macro bearish sentiment, capital outflows, and technical breakthroughs, with weak resistance from bulls. Cash is king, patiently wait for the market to clear. Before the panic index hits bottom, any bottom fishing behavior is like taking a chestnut from the fire. (Note: The viewpoint is strictly based on the status of 32 indicators and does not constitute investment advice.)