金十数据|Feb 05, 2026 10:16
[Bank of England Decision Preview: Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged, Focus on Wage Data and Voting Divergence]
Jin10 Data, February 5 – Giuseppe Dellamotta, an analyst at the U.S. financial website InvestingLive, stated that the Bank of England is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged, with a likely voting result of 7 to 2. Dinghra and Taylor are expected to advocate for a 25 basis point rate cut. Forward guidance is anticipated to remain largely unchanged, with market attention focused on individual members' positions and the agency wage survey.
The statement is expected to retain the guidance of a "gradual downward path" while adding language indicating that "judgments on further easing policies will become more cautious." There is also a strong market consensus for a potential 6 to 3 voting result, with Ramsden likely to cast a dissenting vote. However, analysts believe this would depend on an unexpected slowdown in wage growth in the agency wage survey.
Ramsden had previously expressed concerns in December, noting that the sustained high levels in forward-looking wage growth surveys were troubling to him, and emphasized his close attention to agency wage survey data. Overall, this is expected to be a relatively smooth rate decision, with the only potential variable stemming from the agency wage survey. The market expects wage growth to be 3.5%. If the data unexpectedly rises, it could trigger a more hawkish repricing.
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