飞凡|2月 05, 2026 09:54
The current market view of Ethereum is actually quite extreme.
For an infrastructure, it is a widely held view that if the price of a coin does not rise, it is entirely a strategic mistake.
Actually, looking at ETH's overall plan in recent years is not necessarily a bad thing, it's just that there have been many issues with the pace.
The L2 development of ETH has been too successful, resulting in a value mismatch.
You can understand ETH as a house that is being renovated while people move in.
After the upgrade and introduction of Blob mechanism in Cancun, the settlement cost of L2 has been reduced to a few cents, and high-frequency trading, Defi, and a large number of new applications have been migrated to L2. However, billions of TVLs still remain on the main network.
2. In addition to value misalignment, L2 also broke ETH's deflationary value.
For a long time, ETH relied on staking to maintain its value, while a large number of transactions burned GAS to maintain deflation, which is precisely the most important circulating chip.
L2 is not only insufficient to support ETH's deflation, but also due to security issues, it is difficult to support a large amount of funds, and funds left on the ETH mainnet have become dead money.
3. The rental income of ETH is only one aspect of its value, and the L2 sorter that Ethereum focuses on can only maintain a meager valuation.
At present, the ability of the cryptocurrency market to generate effective large-scale applications is still in a chaotic period. It should be noted that ETH is valued at $300 billion for most of the time, and technology stocks based on the price to earnings (P/E) ratio logic cannot withstand this valuation.
In addition to BTC substitution, ETH broke through 4000 in the last bull market mainly because of Defi narrative. ETH can be used as Internet currency or Internet gold, or the only original collateral in the whole decentralized system.
ETH has always been regarded by veteran players and institutions as the basic settlement currency and optimal collateral on the chain. This is the only high valuation support point for ETH and its only top-level competitiveness.
In fact, whether it's gas or L2 strategy, both are icing on the cake based on this consensus.
The upgrade of Pectra and Fusaka has not been very effective, of course, it is still uncertain whether ETH's pain period is at a low level,
The current lower limit for investing in Ethereum is still due to the existence of an ETF, which can bring a continuous stream of off exchange funds in the context of macroeconomic improvement.
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