How will HIP-4 ignite the prediction market with a monthly transaction volume of $225 billion for Hyperliquid? 】 Author: Predictify Compiled: Deep Tide TechFlow Deep Tide Introduction: In January 2026, it is predicted that the market processed over $23 billion in nominal trading volume. And Hyperliquid processed over $225 billion in the same month alone. Outcome trading may bring billions of dollars in new trading volume to the prediction market. Predictify analysis suggests that the key to HIP-4 lies in integrating the outcome contract into the same margin framework as perpetual futures, allowing event trading to enter the same environment as other encrypted derivatives. This may bring billions of dollars in new trading volume and open contracts to the prediction market in a short period of time. Conservatively estimated, the partial adoption can reach a monthly trading volume of 28 billion US dollars, the moderate adoption can reach 33 billion US dollars, and the strong integration can reach over 40 billion US dollars. The full text is as follows: It is predicted that the market will handle over $23 billion in nominal trading volume in January 2026. Hyperliquid alone processed over $225 billion in the same month. The resulting trading may bring billions of dollars in new trading volume to the prediction market. The predicted market growth is rapid, but they mainly operate independently. You can trade event outcomes, but these positions are not within the same system used by traders to manage broader market risks. HIP-4 changed that. On Hyperliquid, result contracts share the same margin framework as perpetual futures, bringing event trading into the same environment as other encrypted derivatives. This may bring billions of dollars in new trading volume and open contracts to the prediction market in a short period of time. Here is how it operates. The prediction market has grown significantly in size over the past year, surpassing niche activities. The weekly trading volume of major platforms has repeatedly exceeded $6 billion, with a nominal trading volume of approximately $23.8 billion recorded in the past month. The market share remains concentrated, with platforms such as Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi occupying the majority of activities. Despite this growth, it is predicted that the market will still primarily operate as independent venues. Event exposure, targeted encryption exposure, and volatility exposure typically require separate platforms, collateral pools, and risk systems. This segmentation limits capital efficiency and constrains the types of strategies that traders can implement. The resulting contract introduces risk into the core infrastructure through HIP-4. The resulting contract has several defining features: fully collateralized settlement of positions occurs within a fixed and bounded payment range without a clearing mechanism. The contract is based on events or time positions integrated into the same margin framework as perpetual futures. Binary contracts themselves are not new. The structural change lies in their integration into a unified derivatives engine. Event exposure can now share collateral with perpetual positions, allowing risk management at the portfolio level rather than the individual market level. Before the improvement of capital efficiency, implementing event driven strategies typically required traders to deposit collateral on predictive market platforms and separate collateral on perpetual futures venues for hedging cross venue independent management risks and margin. This setup increased capital requirements and operational complexity. By using outcome contracts in a shared trading environment, event exposure and targeted hedging can be managed together. The investment portfolio margin system can identify offsetting risks and reduce the use of total margin. This aligns event trading with established derivative risk management practices. The current market size and potential for trading volume growth predict that the market will handle approximately $20-25 billion in monthly trading volume in today's isolated structure by January 2026, with event trading located outside the broader derivatives stack. In contrast, Hyperliquid recorded over $225 billion in perpetual futures trading volume in the same month, with daily perpetual trading volumes ranging from several billion dollars. The liquidity pool of derivatives has become much deeper than independent forecasting market activity. If HIP-4 improves capital efficiency and makes it easier to hedge event positions within the same system, trading activities may expand through structural turnover - with more strategies running on the same capital. Conservative scenario recommendation: Partial adoption → $28 billion monthly forecast market trading volume moderate adoption → $33 billion strong integration → $40 billion or more These estimates reflect strategy integration rather than hype cycles and do not include the sustained monthly growth already seen in the forecast market trading volume, which may push the total amount higher. The prediction market is beginning to resemble the introduction of option infrastructure, resulting in the introduction of contracts: non-linear payment event driven settlement bounded risk features that overlap with option style exposures. This lays the foundation for the following: Event volatility strategies involve structured products that combine outcome positions with systematic investment portfolios of events and market risks, constructing protocols for new products based on outcome primitives, and predicting the market from primarily narrative driven to becoming a usable component of broader financial strategies. The independent prediction market platform for competitive situations retains advantages in brand awareness, liquidity depth, and simplicity. However, the platform that integrates event risk with perpetual contracts and other derivatives provides a shared collateral pool for real-time hedging of portfolio level risk net settlement, even with partial migration of higher-level trading flows, which may affect the concentration of capital efficiency and hedge intensive activities. The structural adoption of signals will be reflected in trading behavior, not just in headline trading volume: the pairing of result positions with perpetual hedging, the growth of open contracts in macro and policy events, and the emergence of vaults or structured strategies based on result exposure. These signals indicate that the results are being used as financial instruments rather than isolated event trading, relative to the narrowing of spreads in independently predicted market venues. The conclusion predicts that the market has achieved scale, but has been structurally separated from the broader derivatives stack until now. HIP-4 introduces a framework where event risk can coexist with perpetual futures within a shared trading infrastructure. With the development of this model, the forecasting market may operate more and more as a component of diversified risk investment portfolio rather than an independent betting place.