Netherlands International: European Central Bank strengthens foreign exchange discussions or lowers threshold for interest rate cuts

Dutch international analysis points out that the European Central Bank is not expected to change its policy direction before the interest rate meeting, despite the robust economic growth outlook, recent fluctuations in foreign exchange and energy markets are not sufficient to trigger an immediate response. The market believes that the implied probability of a rate cut this year is about 25%, and is concerned about potential adjustments in the communication style of the European Central Bank and their impact on future policies. If the European Central Bank strengthens its attention to the foreign exchange market or engages in more intense discussions, it may be seen as lowering the threshold for further easing policies, which is in line with the market's expectation of easing policy in the coming quarters.