TraderS | 缺德道人|Feb 05, 2026 07:34
It's really a 'spring market crash', and the pancake is just like a blunt knife cutting through the flesh and eroding people's patience. Although there is still a gap of about 100 to break 7, it's really hard to see the bottom structure and the entry of bargain hunting funds. The only hope is to quickly recover after reaching the previous high of 69000 in the bull market. If 69 also completely falls below, it may have to move towards 65.
After looking around the peripheral markets, the US stock market fell, gold and silver fell, and only the US dollar index was rising. The script for a liquidity crisis is clear.
This liquidity crisis may be:
1. There is basically no possibility of interest rate cuts before the Federal Reserve changes its leadership in May
2. The leading AI theme in the US stock market is experiencing a temporary correction and is forced to supplement margin
3. Bank reserves below 3 trillion yuan break the psychological balance line
4. Partial government shutdown in the United States leads to worsening employment
5. The reduction of geopolitical risks leads to the withdrawal of risk premiums
6. The Ministry of Finance's Q1 short-term bond issuance ratio has increased, absorbing liquidity
Combined with multiple factors, it seems that we can easily determine when a market rebound is likely to occur by monitoring when the US dollar index begins to weaken.
To say the least, the liquidity will always improve after the Spring Festival in March, even though it has not been awesome in February
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