K33 Report: Bitcoin's decline reappears in four-year cycle concerns, but deep bear market may be difficult to replicate According to a report by The Block, research firm K33 analyzed that although Bitcoin has fallen by about 40% from its peak in October last year, reigniting concerns about a four-year cycle of decline, multiple structural factors make it unlikely for the market to repeat the deep bear market of up to 80% in 2018 or 2022. The report believes that the key differences between the current environment and previous cycles are the increase in institutional adoption rates, sustained capital inflows from regulated products such as spot ETFs, and a relaxed interest rate environment. More importantly, there was no forced deleveraging event like GBTC, Luna, or FTX that triggered a systemic market collapse this time. Technically speaking, analysts consider around $74000 as the current key support level. If this position is breached, the downside risk may intensify, and the target may point to $69000 or even $58000 (near the 200 week moving average). At the same time, some common bottoming signals began to emerge: Bitcoin recorded a high spot trading volume of over $8 billion on February 2, while open contracts and funding rates in the derivatives market also entered an extremely negative range. These signals combined with prices still above support levels may indicate that the market is trying to bottom out.