Slowly moving down, but not collapsing - chip reconstruction under panic from URPD perspective On February 4th, BTC fell from its high of $97000 on January 15th to $73000; Fast speed and deep amplitude instantly extinguished the optimistic mood that was thought to be resisted at 8w. To say that there is no panic is a lie. Therefore, it is necessary for us to review what changes have occurred in BTC's chip structure during this period, and what important information is hidden behind it? For the convenience of understanding, I have compiled the complete URPD data into a table, with each $10000 interval as one level. This allows for a clear observation of the trajectory of chip movement, thereby determining current market sentiment and behavior. (Figure 1) As shown in Figure 1, from 1/15 to 2/4, the total number of profitable chips below decreased by 67008 BTC, accounting for 9.7% of the total decrease; And the loss chips above decreased by 611324 BTC, accounting for 88% of the total decrease; This indicates that in the current overall downward trend, long-term holders still have floating profits and fewer chips they plan to sell. Either you think it's completely unnecessary to sell here for profit, or you ignore price fluctuations and hold for a long time across cycles; In short, the more it falls, the less it sells. Big head is holding onto the chips above, they are the current dominant force in selling pressure. In just 20 days, there was a net decrease of 60000+pieces, indicating how strong the willingness to escape regardless of cost is under the panic. But on the other hand, we see a large number of takeover orders in the two ranges of $80000~$90000 and $70000~$80000. Especially for the latter, the total net purchase of 450413 BTC is almost twice as high as the previous range. It can be seen that there are funds hidden behind the market, expressing their views with strong strength and real money - if you dare to fall, I dare to buy! And the more it falls, the more it buys. I think this is also a significant difference between this cycle and any previous cycle. Even if the 4-year cycle theory is not proven false, bulls will still resist layer by layer during the decline. The chip intensive areas of 10w, 9w, 8w, 7w... are gradually moving downwards, rather than a discontinuous decline. Many people are now predicting that the bear bottom of this round will be around 50000 or 30000. I have reservations about this, but I believe that once the bears compress the "territory" of the bulls to the extreme, with insufficient supply and subsequent weakness, there will also be a comprehensive and strong counterattack from the bulls! --------------------------------------------- Finally, I would like to leave a question for my friends to think about for themselves: In the chart statistics, the total number of chips on January 15, 2026 is 16184047; And February 4th is 16198235; Where did the extra 14188 come from? What does this mean? Welcome to leave a comment in the comment section, let's discuss together! --------------------------------------------- The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice!