The indicator in the current chart has fallen to 1.45 In 2014, the indicator went from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days In 2018, the indicator went from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days In 2022, the indicator will increase from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days Note: Indicator up to 1, basic bear bottom The gray line at the top of the graph represents the BTC price; The yellow line represents the average cost for short-term BTC holders; Meihong Line is the average cost for long-term BTC holders (excluding chips held for more than 10 years) The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the "average cost of BTC short-term holders" to the "average cost of BTC long-term holders (excluding>10y chip version)" (i.e. yellow line/red line) The average cost for short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost base of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and are more likely to sell their positions when the market fluctuates or falls. It is often seen as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually higher than the average cost; In a bear market, prices falling below that level may trigger more selling pressure The average cost for long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes chips held for more than 10 years (lost or extremely long-term real estate, such as Satoshi's coins) to focus on a more "active" group of long-term holders. These extremely long-term chips have extremely low costs and are almost immobile, so excluding them can provide a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during the market cycle. This indicator is often seen as a reference for the market's underlying support level: in a bear market, it may serve as a potential price floor The ratio of the two (BTC short-term holder cost average/BTC long-term holder cost average) reflects the stages of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamic behavior of participants: Ratio>1: indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost base (even excluding extremely long-term chips). This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong new capital inflows, but it may also indicate speculative overheating or potential correction Ratio<1: indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost base (reflecting their holdings across cycles). This is often a signal of surrender, indicating that weak hands have cleared and the market may shift towards recovery or the starting point of a bull market Overall meaning: The upward trend of the ratio indicates that the cost of short-term holders is increasing relative to long-term holders, marking the "digital rise" stage or the continuation of the bull market; The downward trend indicates that the cost for long-term holders is increasing relative to short-term holders, indicating a bear market or distribution phase. Excluding chips with a lifespan of more than 10 years makes LTH costs closer to active market participants, avoiding the distortion ratio of low-cost lost coins, and thus more accurately capturing cyclical turning points (such as transitioning from a bear market to a bull market). In history, when the ratio falls below 1, it is often a long-term buying opportunity