Joe Burnett, MSBA|2月 03, 2026 18:35
This model shows current bitcoin price action is still sitting within historical norms at $74,000.
Bitcoin is down ~40% from its October high while U.S. equities remain near all time highs, with the S&P 500 down less than 10%. Under those conditions, a possible ~45% bitcoin drawdown aligns closely with historical volatility.
Volatility of this magnitude remains a symptom of a rapidly monetizing asset.
If equities weaken further, additional downside is certainly possible. Nasdaq is down ~2% today and the S&P 500 is down ~1.3%.
My key takeaway is simple: Bitcoin’s recent volatility reflects normal market behavior within an unstable fiat credit system.
Current BTC price action is statistically nothing abnormal.(Joe Burnett, MSBA)
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