One recent variable is the situation in Iran. If the U.S. and Iran suddenly go to war, intuitively, gold, silver, and oil might rise as safe-haven assets, while Bitcoin and Ethereum could drop as risk assets. But there’s a point that needs to be verified by facts: when war breaks out, oil will definitely spike, but whether gold and silver rise due to safe-haven demand or drop due to speculative factors remains uncertain. After the first wave of emotional trading during the outbreak of war causes gold and silver to rise, the second wave—triggered by margin calls due to a U.S. stock market drop—might lead to a liquidity squeeze. At that point, gold and silver might shift from rising to falling. Not because they’re no longer safe-haven assets, but because of a cash shortage. Once the market fully calms down and realizes that the oil price surge will lead to hyperinflation, and the Fed, due to the risks of war and economic recession, won’t dare to raise rates and might even need to expand its balance sheet, the recent quantitative tightening expectations brought by Waller will be completely reversed.