Wintermute: Macro factors have driven the cryptocurrency market into a bear market, but it may end faster than past bear markets According to Wintermute's analysis, the current market has entered a bear market, but unlike previous bear markets triggered by industry structural collapses such as FTX and Luna events, this round of decline is mainly driven by macro environment and narrative rotation, leading to an organic deleveraging process. Due to the absence of forced bankruptcy or chain contagion, this cycle may end faster than past bear markets. The current infrastructure is more robust, and the adoption of stablecoins continues to grow. Institutional interest has not disappeared but is temporarily observing. Once macro uncertainty subsides and the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clear, market attention may quickly return in the second half of 2026. At present, the market position has been reduced after liquidation, but confidence is still weak, and the price has entered the exploration stage again after two months of sideways trading. Although it is too early to talk about a trend reversal, given that the crypto ecosystem has not been structurally disrupted, any meaningful upward trend may be clearer than the rebound in previous bear markets.