Institutional warning: After the change of Federal Reserve Chairman, the S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 16% According to BlockBeats news, on February 3rd, Barclays pointed out that since 1930, the S&P 500 index has experienced an average pullback of about 16% within six months of the new Federal Reserve chairman taking office, significantly higher than the normal pullback. If Kevin Walsh takes over in May, the US stock market may come under pressure again. The report states that new chairpersons often face market "tests" within a few months of taking office. After the announcement of Trump's nomination of Walsh to replace Powell, the US stock market has experienced a decline, and the market believes that he is not a dovish candidate. Analysis suggests that in the context of the controversy over the independence of the Federal Reserve, high inflation, and slowing employment, leadership turnover will exacerbate monetary policy uncertainty. If Walsh pushes for balance sheet reduction, it may further deplete liquidity and negatively impact risk assets; But its hawkish stance on the balance sheet may help suppress gold prices and provide temporary support for the US dollar.