0xSun|2月 03, 2026 05:35
Hype is the worst deal I've ever made recently. In early December last year, when I was trading for $32, I set a goal to build positions in batches below $25. The logic at that time was that Perp dex's income would decrease during bear markets, and the price would be further undervalued due to data decline, in addition to being affected by market downturns. However, during bull markets, it would spiral upwards in reverse. Therefore, as a bottom fishing target in bear markets, it is very cost-effective.
Afterwards, the coin price fell below $25 as I expected, and I didn't rush to open a position. Finally, I fired the first bullet on January 21st, and went 50wu long at $21.7. Looking back now, it was already a perfect bottom, but after the price rebounded, there was a small pullback, and I was worried that the market would further bear. I changed my mind and lowered the target range for opening a position to $15~20, and also closed the position with a small profit.
Based on the logic of the Perp dex, I also bought a low of $2M LIT during the same period, and now it is only fluctuating around the cost line. If it were Hype, the profit would be close to $1.5M.
Later on, everyone knew that BTC did indeed fall from 90k to 78k, while Hype rose all the way to $38 due to the surge in precious metal trading volume, collective criticism of Binance in the English speaking community, the liquidation of HLP with a daily income of 15M by Giant Whale, and the launch of HIP-4.
This should have been my best recent deal, and most of the judgments I made were indeed correct. However, in the end, due to the lack of integration of knowledge and action, I gained almost nothing. The conclusions I came up with are:
1. A truly good target often has a certain degree of independence in its price trend and will not completely follow the rhythm of the market. For example, Hype fell earlier than BTC this time and then rebounded against the market.
2. It is best to use an independent account for pre planned mid to long term bottom fishing positions and avoid frequent checks, as they are easily affected by profit and loss fluctuations.
3. The strategy of leading the market will not go wrong in the vast majority of times. Don't pursue Beta just because of the so-called cost-effectiveness. The real leader who can lead the market is definitely the leader.
4. On the premise of preparing to build warehouses in batches, do not pursue absolute bottom and cost advantages. It is difficult to have good prices and good news at the same time, and it is also difficult to have low costs and large positions at the same time.
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