Recently, discussions about Binance have flooded the timeline on Twitter. In my impression, it seems that during the bull bear transition phase of each cycle, centralized exchanges become the protagonists of related events. For example, Mt. Gox in 2014, FTX in 2022 The exchange is the carrier of liquidity on the exchange, with extremely high weight; Once a problem arises, its impact on the market is devastating. History will judge right from wrong, and at this moment, I don't want to see any exchange go wrong, just like I didn't want to see FTX go bankrupt back then. There is a saying in the market that 'Binance sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin', and CZ has responded that this is a trading behavior of Binance users. So, is the current decline in BTC really caused by "Binance" smashing the market? From the overall data, I don't think so. (Figure 1) Figure 1 shows the daily net BTC transfer volume of Binance over the past 30 days, and I have separately filtered out the data for "single transactions exceeding $1000w". It can be seen that after BTC rebounded to $98000 on January 16th, the overall direction of large funds was net outflow, indicating that Binance's major players continued to withdraw BTC instead of putting it up for sale. That is to say, even if someone really "sold $1 billion in Bitcoin", then if someone sells, someone will buy, and after buying, they will withdraw the coins. This can also be understood as: the chips taken away by these big players do not intend to sell in the short term. At the beginning of the pullback in October last year, when the net outflow reached its peak, major players withdrew 2100 BTC per day from Binance (30 day average). Of course, the current scale is far less than before, with the highest average being only 550 pieces per day. (Figure 2) In contrast, the direction of large funds on Coinbase is exactly opposite to Binance: when BTC rebounded to its peak on January 16th, the net inflow of BTC into Coinbase suddenly increased (also exceeding $1000w per transaction), reaching an average of 1350 BTC per day for 30 days at its peak. The explanation is that the major players on Coinbase took advantage of the rebound of BTC to deposit a large amount of chips into the exchange and sell them at an appropriate time. And this volume is much larger than the number of purchases and transfers made on Binance during the same period (550 per day). Therefore, we can assume that the real selling pressure comes from American investors on Coinbase. If we have to say, 'Who is smashing the market and causing BTC's rebound to come to an abrupt end?'? ”I don't think Binance should bear this responsibility. If we have to resort to Fud, then we should criticize Coinbase even more. In fact, the decline is the result of the overall emotions and behaviors of market participants, and the reasons are complex and multi-threaded. We cannot simply attribute the "blame" to a single entity. But from an emotional perspective, the behavior of American investors can represent the mainstream sentiment of the current market. It is not difficult to see from the data that whenever Coinbase's BTC net traffic changes from negative to positive (30 day level), the market will weaken. On the contrary, when both Coinbase and Binance experience large-scale net outflows, the market will become stronger. So, there's no need to create panic for the sake of Fud. We all drink water from the same well, so don't spit into it. ------------------------------------------------------- The above is only for learning exchange and not for investment advice!