Galaxy Digital analyzes that Bitcoin may drop to its 200 week moving average of $58000

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that the price of Bitcoin has been weak recently, with a cumulative drop of 15% from January 28th to January 31st, with a single day drop of 10% on January 31st, triggering over $2 billion in long positions in contracts, with the lowest falling to $75644, which is lower than the average cost price of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States at $84000 and close to the annual low of $744.2 in April 2025. Currently, 46% of Bitcoin supply is in a floating loss state. Analysis suggests that Bitcoin may further dip to the bottom of the supply gap around $70000, and even test the 200 week moving average (around $58000) and realized price (around $56000), which historically typically mark the bottom of cycles. In addition, although the profit taking behavior of long-term holders has slowed down, there are no signs of large-scale accumulation of whales or long-term holders in the market. The report also mentioned that Bitcoin has recently failed to rise in sync with traditional safe haven assets such as gold and silver.