Will MicroStrategy be in trouble? This isn’t a math problem, it’s a game theory question. Bitcoin is dropping, but MicroStrategy’s debt holders won’t immediately demand their money back. MicroStrategy has prepared $2.19 billion in reserves to deal with this. At the same time, it’s similar to a bank run: the worse the situation gets, the harder it is to secure financing, the lower the confidence, the more the stock drops. When the new weekly report comes out and losses further increase, some conservative institutions won’t be allowed to allocate its stock anymore. This could lead to it being kicked out of indexes, triggering more sell-offs and causing the aforementioned negative spiral. MicroStrategy’s business model is flawless, designed to account for all kinds of worst-case scenarios as much as possible. But if an extremely bad situation does occur in the future, whether it can withstand the test will depend on the market’s faith in it. If the bull market returns, it’s safe. If the bull market doesn’t return, it remains at risk. If the bear market deepens, it faces compounding risks. Can’t help but think of the famous Murphy’s Law: the more you worry about something happening, the more likely it is to happen.